With General Conference, right around the corner, I thought it might be fun to make some guesses about topics that will or won’t be brought up by the speakers. But not only will I list the topics, for each topic, I’ll also provide an actual numerical estimate of the probability that at least one speaker will mention it. As a trained data tinkerer, I can assure you that these so-called “estimates” are completely made up! Please feel free to add your suggestions, or explain why my numbers are wrong, in the comments.
| Topic | Probability |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 as a public health crisis | 10% |
| COVID-19 as an analogy for a spiritually bad thing | 50% |
| The need to stop the spread of COVID-19 by wearing masks | 5% |
| The need to respect others’ beliefs about the dangers of wearing masks | 20% |
| The announcement of official Church-branded masks, complete with the new logo, to be made available to all temple recommend-holding members | < 1% |
| The wickedness of the world, as evidenced by governments’ failure to label church meetings “essential” during COVID-19 lockdowns | 60% |
| The wickedness of the world, as evidenced by some wealthy countries still refusing to provide health insurance to all their citizens. | << 1% |
| Congratulations to Jacinda Ardern and New Zealand for handling the COVID-19 crisis so well | 1% |
| Condemnation to Donald Trump and the United States for handling the COVID-19 crisis so badly | << 1% |
| The importance of electing officials who will pass laws against abortion | 10% |
| The importance of electing officials who will pass laws against gay marriage | 15% |
| The importance of paying your taxes | < 1% |
| The importance of not going $300 million into debt | << 1% |
| QAnon conspiracy theories as a bad thing | 1% |
| QAnon conspiracy theories as a good thing | 2% |
| Operation Underground Railroad | 5% |
| Quote from Ruth Bader Ginsburg | < 1% |
| Quote from Amy Coney Barrett | 1% |
| Reminder that racism is bad | 1% |
| Reminder that property destruction is uncalled for, even when people have been treated badly | 5% |
| Announcement of one or more new temples | 95% |
| Announcement of five or more new temples | 50% |
| Announcement of ten or more new temples | 5% |
| Retraction of a temple previously announced | < 1% |
| Salt Lake Temple renovation found to be too costly; temple is to be demolished and rebuilt | < 1% |
| New all-Zoom temple ordinances | << 1% |
| Tithing, and how it’s even more important during hard times | 40% |
| Death, and how it’s part of God’s plan | 50% |
| Six new apostles called to “pack the Quorum” | << 1% |
| Family Proclamation canonized | 10% |
| Restoration Proclamation canonized | 15% |
| D&C 132 de-canonized | << 1% |
| Earthly polygamy reinstated | < 1% |
| Hosanna shout to be re-performed each Conference until membership can “get it right” | 5% |
only if it is preceded by a disclaimer that their use does not imply any endorsement of the Church or its priesthood by the Hostess Corporation.
. . . . The moment [the ward librarian’s] back was turned some breezy teacher would waltz in to make a few copies, ignoring the “library demons only” sign on the scriptorium and wouldn’t you know it, the parchment would get stuck or start unravelling uncontrollably. Oh look, there it goes again. “This is so typical,” she thought as she heaved a giant tome of “church illustrations volume 7” onto the checkout desk. “At least I get to miss Sunday school and talk with my friend.” Despite its drawbacks, the Ward Librarian was a plum job even back then.#/media/File:Lds_conference_center_theater_2.jpg){kind=link}