With General Conference, right around the corner, I thought it might be fun to make some guesses about topics that will or won’t be brought up by the speakers. But not only will I list the topics, for each topic, I’ll also provide an actual numerical estimate of the probability that at least one speaker will mention it. As a trained data tinkerer, I can assure you that these so-called “estimates” are completely made up! Please feel free to add your suggestions, or explain why my numbers are wrong, in the comments.
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| Topic | Probability |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 as a public health crisis | 10% |
| COVID-19 as an analogy for a spiritually bad thing | 50% |
| The need to stop the spread of COVID-19 by wearing masks | 5% |
| The need to respect others’ beliefs about the dangers of wearing masks | 20% |
| The announcement of official Church-branded masks, complete with the new logo, to be made available to all temple recommend-holding members | < 1% |
| The wickedness of the world, as evidenced by governments’ failure to label church meetings “essential” during COVID-19 lockdowns | 60% |
| The wickedness of the world, as evidenced by some wealthy countries still refusing to provide health insurance to all their citizens. | << 1% |
| Congratulations to Jacinda Ardern and New Zealand for handling the COVID-19 crisis so well | 1% |
| Condemnation to Donald Trump and the United States for handling the COVID-19 crisis so badly | << 1% |
| The importance of electing officials who will pass laws against abortion | 10% |
| The importance of electing officials who will pass laws against gay marriage | 15% |
| The importance of paying your taxes | < 1% |
| The importance of not going $300 million into debt | << 1% |
| QAnon conspiracy theories as a bad thing | 1% |
| QAnon conspiracy theories as a good thing | 2% |
| Operation Underground Railroad | 5% |
| Quote from Ruth Bader Ginsburg | < 1% |
| Quote from Amy Coney Barrett | 1% |
| Reminder that racism is bad | 1% |
| Reminder that property destruction is uncalled for, even when people have been treated badly | 5% |
| Announcement of one or more new temples | 95% |
| Announcement of five or more new temples | 50% |
| Announcement of ten or more new temples | 5% |
| Retraction of a temple previously announced | < 1% |
| Salt Lake Temple renovation found to be too costly; temple is to be demolished and rebuilt | < 1% |
| New all-Zoom temple ordinances | << 1% |
| Tithing, and how it’s even more important during hard times | 40% |
| Death, and how it’s part of God’s plan | 50% |
| Six new apostles called to “pack the Quorum” | << 1% |
| Family Proclamation canonized | 10% |
| Restoration Proclamation canonized | 15% |
| D&C 132 de-canonized | << 1% |
| Earthly polygamy reinstated | < 1% |
| Hosanna shout to be re-performed each Conference until membership can “get it right” | 5% |
Fantastic job, Ziff.
One suggestion: Work in specific wording about the government dissolution of RELIGIOUS FREEDOM.
Spend 5 seconds telling everyone not to feel obligated to return to in-person meetings but spend 30 minutes reminding people of their obligation to return to in-person meetings. 50%
“The wickedness of the world, as evidenced by governments’ failure to label church meetings “essential” during COVID-19 lockdowns”
60% seems low for this
Reminder to vote for men of principle, honest, chste, benovelent….
Hosanna shout to be re-performed each Conference until membership can “get it right”
Ha! Wish GAs would get it right – it always sounds like the Hosanna whimper
Chance that someone will quote D&C 98:9–10 (When the wicked rule the people mourn. Wherefore, honest men and wise men should be sought for diligently, and good men and wise men ye should observe to uphold; otherwise whatsoever is less than these cometh of evil.): 0 percent.
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What a bunch of cynics you are.
Well, I am for sure, Th. But at least I was right that it was unlikely for the Hosanna shout to be re-done!