General Conference is less than a month away. What topics do you think we’ll hear about? What topics
will speakers carefully avoid? Here’s a list of some of my guesses of topics and phrases and possible policy changes, along with the likelihood that they’ll come up in Conference talks.
Words and phrases
- “Youth battalion” — 90%
- “Middle-aged battalion” — < 1%
- “Senior citizen battalion” — << 1%
- “Youth corps” — < 1%
- “Let God prevail” — > 99%
- “Covenant path” — 99%
- “Plan of happiness” — 60%
- “Plan of salvation” — 10%
- “Divine design” — 20%
- “Hinge point” — 10%
- “Under the banner of heaven” — << 1%
- “Big 12” — 1%
- “SEC [Southeastern Conference]” — < 1%
- “SEC [Securities and Exchange Commission]” — << 1%
- “We consider this matter closed.” — << 1%
- “In all material respects, contributions received, expenditures made, and assets of the Church have been recorded and administered in accordance with approved Church budgets, policies, and accounting practices.” — 99%
Topics
- Tithing — 10%
- Church charitable giving — 50%
- Naughtiness of fringe/ex-members — 70%
- Q15 effective infallibility — 80%
- Church concern for protecting victims of abuse — 50%
- Church concern for protecting perpetrators of abuse — < 1%
- Church concern for protecting its good name — << 1%
- Church concern for protecting its wealth — << 1%
- Easter — 99%
- Inviting friends to church on Easter — > 99%
- Liturgical calendar — < 1%
- Feast of St. Bernadette (April 16th, except in France) — << 1%
- Temple changes as evidence of ongoing Restoration — 50%
- Temple changes as evidence of apostasy — << 1%
Numbers Mentioned
- 5 million (dollars) — << 1%
- 17 million (members) — 90%
- 12 (apostles) — 95%
- 138 (sections of the D&C) — 1%
- 32 billion (dollars) — << 1%
- 300 (temples) — 95%
- six hundred threescore and six — < 1%
- 144,000 (sealed men in Revelation 7) — 1%
Announcements and Policy Changes
- 5+ new temples — 99%
- 10+ new temples — 90%
- 20+ new temples — 30%
- Russia temple canceled — < 1%
- China temple canceled — << 1%
- Temples will have “throwback days” where they perform old-style endowments from bygone eras — << 1%
- First Presidency is expanded to include a third counselor — 1%
- First Presidency is expanded to include a third counselor: Denver Snuffer — << 1%
- General Conference will be moved when it falls on Easter (next occurs in 2026) — 1%
- One-hour church on Easter will be an ongoing policy — 50%
- One-hour church (second hour officially optional) — < 1%
- One-hour church (second hour discontinued) — << 1%
- Tithing is officially on gross income — < 1%
- Tithing is officially on net income — << 1%
- Tithing decreased to 5% — << 1%
- Tithing increased to 12% — < 1%
- Tithing is officially optional — << 1%
- Church opens its finances to members — << 1%
- Family Proclamation canonized — 1%
- Restoration Proclamation canonized — 2%
- “The Living Christ” canonized — < 1%
- Book of Abraham de-canonized — << 1%
- D&C 132 de-canonized — << 1%
- Retirement age for Seventies increased — 1%
- Retirement age for Q15 announced — << 1%
- Polygamy reinstated — < 1%
- Polygamy officially renounced — << 1%
In case you want to check my (total lack of) accuracy, here are my previous Conference prediction posts.
Once I was a Sunday School teacher to some 13 year olds. I asked them the week after general conference if there was anything they remember that was said the previous week. The best answer: “close quote”. I’d put 100% probability on that one.
LOL, Quentin! That certainly does seem like a safe bet!
Are we able to place bets on these odds? I’ll put $10 on “Plan of Salvation” at 10:1. (Is there a vig? I’m pretty sure the OT days you’re not allowed to have a vig on GC prop bets. It’s in Numbers somewhere.) I’ll also put $5 against any mention of temple changes.
Interesting to notice that your odds on Family or Restoration Proclamation Canonization have dropped significantly in the last couple of years. Is this like a HOF ballot issue where if you don’t get enough votes in the first couple years of eligibility you are unlikely to ever make it in and will eventually get dropped from the ballot?
And finally, are you going to report back on your prediction accuracy? I’ve been a high level attender of GC my whole life. I’ve nearly always watched every single session. But the recent cancelling and un-cancelling of the Saturday evening session made me realize that more is not always better, and for the first time I’m actively drawing a line that 3 sessions is better than 5. Honestly, 3 sessions that I pay attention is better in every respect (my time, my spirituality, etc.) than 5 sessions that I play games on my phone through (which is what tends to happen). I’m making an honest push to sacrifice quantity while trying to improve the quality of my engagement. (I can’t do anything about the quality of the conference.) Looks like I’ve wandered a bit here, but I guess I wanted to tell someone that. 🙂
Phrase we’ll never hear in General Conference: “Church leaders apologize for…”
Anon, so true. I still have hopes if maybe Uchtdorf made the top spot, though.
DaveW, you’re super on top of things to have noticed! I don’t know that I was even consciously aware of thinking the probability one of the procs would get canonized had changed. My guess would be that it’s highest when a new church president gets in, as he figures out all the things he could change that have been bugging him. (Although prior to RMN, I don’t know that this process was ever so obvious or open.) Then once he hasn’t done it after a while, then I figure he’s just not going to do it. Although I wonder if maybe once a church president felt like he was nearing death, maybe he’d make another flurry of changes.
Also, I like your decision to cut back on Conference. If I didn’t plan to watch/read it all for blogging purposes, I think I’d be in the same boat. Probably one session would be enough.
This was so bleak. Or maybe I’m just in a weird mood today. Some of it did make me laugh, though. I’ll throw one in:
Topic We Will Hear at General Conference: The general authorities chastising the widow with her two mites and lecturing the salt of the earth church members and people who do their best to live as the Savior did, fulfill and magnify their callings, reach out to the outsiders and those on the fringes in their ward and stakes, exhaust themselves serving those on both sides of the veil, who honor their temple covenants, keep the commandments, and don’t openly gloat about their good fortune should they have any.
Topic We Won’t Hear at General Conference: The general authorities coming down on the wealthy pioneer corridor social media influencers who rub their good fortune and money in everyone’s faces, the baby boomers who refuse to look inside themselves and change, those living in the pioneer corridor who’ve been coddled and indulged by the same general authorities for God knows how long, the mean girls/mean guys who create and enable cliques and division in their own wards and stakes (single and married alike), the extremists like DezNat who are on a power trip and determined to oppress minorities, women, those who are LGBTQ+, and who don’t fit the Aryan definition of “beautiful”, and the people who knowingly break the commandments and go against their temple covenants.
The general authorities will give a pass to the people in the Topic We Won’t Hear at General Conference group like they always do. We can guarantee that for sure.
Good lists, JC. Sorry I was bleak!
You forgot, “Endless praise, glory and honor, along with figurative flower-throwing and foot-kissing, to his majesty Russell M. Nelson.” This will add up to at least a full wasted hour.
But how can you be sure, NYAnn? I mean, it’s not like there’s a pattern of such behavior at Conf . . . oh, never mind. 🙂
Denver Snuffer! :’D
I would read that fan fic. (But who would write it?)
I predict more talk about how leaving is bad and staying is the only way to be happy.
Also how you have to be careful about sources of information: you can’t trust all that anti-mornon news. All investigative reporters are trying to bring down the church because they don’t have the light of christ.
Whenever you read something bad about the church or a church leader just take a media fast for a couple of weeks to protect yourself. After all if they make the members do it automatically then Pres. Nelson doesn’t have to announce it. It saves time and effort.
Temple “throwback days” legit made me laugh out loud. Here are some other predictions:
“normal and natural” – 99%
“Love, share, invite” – 90%
“Kirtland Safety Society” – 30%
“Ensign Peak Advisors” – 1%
“Be not deceived” – 50% (this is based on a comment my bishop recently made about a devotional that said the fulness of times included a fulness of deception)
Great additions, Mary Ann! I’d love it if the Kirtland Safety Society were mentioned!
Hedwig, probably so. The idea of a self-directed social media fast when you come across disturbing information is excellent!
I just heard the perfect quote, and anyone (including Elder Oaks) is free to use it, as long as they credit the source [“Succession”, season 4, episode 2]:
Look ! I don’t do apologies. But if it means so much to you: SORRY !
LOL, Raymond! That’s perfect!